Due to the delayed shipment of South American copper, the import volume of copper cathode in August decreased as expected [SMM Analysis]

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported a total of 2.326 million mt of copper cathode from January to August 2024, up 7.79% YoY. Among them, the import volume in August was 249,000 mt, down 9.56% MoM and down 23.3% YoY. From January to August, China exported a total of 403,000 mt of copper cathode, up 85.48% YoY. Among them, the export volume in August was 31,000 mt, down 55.98% MoM and up 49.57% YoY.

In terms of imports, the total import volume of copper cathode in August reached 249,000 mt, down 9.56% MoM and down 23.3% YoY. Among them, the imports of copper cathode from Africa reached 101,400 mt, down 16.47% MoM, accounting for 40.63% of the total import volume. The decline mainly came from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo. According to SMM, due to the poor performance of the imported copper market in the Shanghai bonded zone in Q2, the spot order volume of copper cathode from Africa to China continued to decline, with priority given only to long-term orders, resulting in a continuous decline in the import volume of copper cathode from Africa.

Additionally, the delayed shipment of long-term orders of South American copper, which was supposed to arrive in August, is another reason for the decline in the total import volume of copper cathode in August. This can be verified by the 22.07% MoM decline in the total volume of copper cathode from Chile. Overall, the decline in the import volume of copper cathode in August was mainly due to the continuous decline in spot orders from Africa and the delayed shipment of long-term orders of South American copper.

In terms of exports, the export volume of copper cathode in August was 31,000 mt, significantly lower than in July. This was mainly because the export window had completely closed in August. Except for normal deliveries and fixed long-term orders, mainstream domestic refineries did not plan for copper cathode exports.

Looking ahead, according to SMM, South Korea is still continuing to make up for the previous long-term orders of copper cathode, and the arrivals of copper cathode from South Korea will continue to increase. Additionally, a major player is extracting previously delivered copper cathode from LME warehouses in Asia and shipping it back to China, which will increase the import volume of copper cathode in September. Overall, excluding fixed long-term orders, the above additional increase will make the import volume of copper cathode in September significantly higher than in August. In terms of exports, due to the continued closure of the export window, mainstream domestic refineries have no export plans for September, and it is expected that the export volume of copper cathode in September will continue to decline slightly.